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If the loss rate is 5% every mission then after 25 missions the total loss is 71%, that is 71% of aircraft failing to return or being written off. Of the men in 88 B-17s from the 8th Air Force lost on raids in July and August 1943 70.3% survived.
So work it out, the killed rate would be, after 25 missions, around 21%, high enough, but not 71%, that is the aircraft loss.
By the time the 8th air force bombers were flying 30 mission tours the loss rates were down well below 5%. Also the original claim assumes all USAAF tours were 30 missions, the loss rates remained fixed and the loss rates were the same across the board, no variation with mission type.
As an aside a 5% loss rate means on average the 25th mission will be flown by crews with an average 13 missions, using a simple replace the losses with green crews model. At 3% loss the experience on the 25th mission climbs to 16.6 missions, at 1% loss rate the average experience becomes 21 missions.
It is known green crews are likely to make the most mistakes so the lower loss rate helps improve the overall experience and therefore the overall effectiveness.
No, what has happened is the aces have been given publicity and those who scored their 1 or 2 kills ignored. Target was the description applied to the new pilots. The USN found the first mission to be the most dangerous and made efforts to shepherd the pilots through it.
Like all occupations there are those who are very good at a given skill, that is not the same as the rest were there for the taking.
So all guns all had tracers with different ballistic qualities to the standard rounds, or are we talking at some 'long range' definition?
The reality is most fighter pilots in WWII never saw the aircraft that shot them down.
I really like the idea the enemy was busy watching to see if a particular aircraft suddenly fired an all tracer burst.
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This is an interesting claim, the Germans built 1 Me264, a second prototype was destroyed by bombing in December 1943 and the third most probably abandoned. It was a 4 engined long range bomber, carrying no defensive armament, 4,330 imperial gallons of fuel (30% in self sealing tanks) and a proposed bomb load of around 4,000 pounds.
The initial prototype first flew in December 1942, without the planned engines for a start, so they could at least obtain some aerodynamic data.
In 1943 the Amerika bomber was reassessed and it was felt a 6 engined machine was needed. The Me264 was then reworked into a maritime patrol bomber idea, the second and third prototypes.
The U-120, a type IIB was scuttled in May 1945, never used in combat, no casualties either,
http://uboat.net/boats/u120.htm
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Going to mention the US indicates it lost 21 men dead, 4 to booby traps and the Canadians 4 men dead all to Japanese munitions in the first 2 days.
All up confirming the island was unoccupied cost the US 313 casualties, the Navy lost 70 dead or missing and 47 wounded when the destroyer Abner Read struck a mine on 18 August.
Geoffrey Sinclair Remove the nb for email.